The Globe and Mail – Opinion Letter

Jean Simard is the president and CEO of the Aluminium Association of Canada, a member of the Advisory Committee on Canada-U.S. economic relations, and the co-chair of the Canada-U.S. Trade Council.

The countdown has begun. In a little over a week, Canada could face a new 50-per-cent tariff on a wide range of products headed to the United States, including hockey sticks.

This latest broadside by Donald Trump and his administration is aimed at imposing their agenda on the country’s deficit and restoring U.S. manufacturing jobs, and countering Canada’s efforts to resolve issues in the steel, aluminum, automotive, and lumber sectors that have been in place since 2025.

The Trumpian game is obvious: Put pressure on Canada by denigrating its capabilities and resources in order to weaken its economy and sow division among its people, cast the country as a bad actor because of Ottawa’s retaliatory tariffs, and threaten us with an additional tariff burden to bring us to the negotiating table with our hands tied on an empty stomach.

But we’ve seen this play out before – and we succeeded.

On July 1, 2018, Ottawa enacted tariff measures in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, enabling Canada to draw its line in the sand. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement would eventually be signed by the three countries in November, 2018, and Washington and Ottawa agreed to lift their tariffs in May, 2019. As the minister responsible for negotiations at the time, Chrystia Freeland set out a strategy to develop a list of measures to announce at planned times. The approach was known; the list was not. From Pennsylvania ketchup to Kentucky bourbon, everything was on the table. Its effect was considerable, provoking the President’s anger toward her, but Canada stayed the course.

Ottawa discussing trade concessions with U.S. in return for some tariff relief, sources say

As we reach the Aug. 19 deadline, three scenarios could unfold. An agreement could be reached to Canada’s satisfaction on the sectors under tariffs – steel, aluminum, lumber, and automotive – and to continue discussions on energy, national security, critical minerals, and other points of common interest. Or discussions may move forward without a conclusion, as Mr. Trump moves the goalposts again and postpones his latest tariff aggression. Or discussions break down and the tariff cloud thickens.

While the U.S. administration tries to force our hand in the face of the President’s growing weakness in the polls – dragged down by a war in Iran with no clear end in sight and the high cost of living, with the midterm elections looming – we must show resilience and agility. We must prepare for the worst-case scenario so that we are ready to demonstrate deterrent strength if the time comes to use it.

If you wish for peace, prepare for war, as the Romans used to say. And Canadians, without exception, must be ready to accept hardship if that is the price to pay to protect our economy from the Trumpian posture. So far, we have proven ourselves willing: a July Abacus poll found that 69 per cent of Canadians are prepared for their government to hold firm and play for time to secure an agreement that is good for Canada, even if it causes economic uncertainty. Our premiers were united, with some nuances, at the Council of the Federation summit in July. We cannot lose our nerve.

In the meantime, Canada still benefits from USMCA protection for 80 per cent of its exports and continues its push toward market diversification through multiple new trade agreements. And the President’s latest tariff arsenal is already being tested by U.S. courts, despite the administration’s surprising creativity in recently decreeing new 10-per-cent tariffs on nearly 80 countries under the guise of combatting forced labour, even as it admitted that it sought to secure gains in its trade relations. 

The trade war requires us to sharpen our weapons and build our arsenal of measures that will hurt carefully targeted constituencies and states, while maintaining or increasing support for the sectors of our economy that need it.

Canadians must stand together and be strategic in both substance and form. Communication with the U.S. – with the Trump administration, yes, but even more so with businesses, real influencers, and American elected officials – becomes, in itself, a weapon of deterrence.

Fear is a poor adviser, and Mr. Trump knows it.

When Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky was asked by a reporter at the beginning of the Russian invasion whether he feared Vladimir Putin might use nuclear weapons, he replied, after a brief silence: “One must never be afraid; only be ready. We are ready.”

Canada: Let’s be ready.